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January Party Over?

Wow… what can we say about January in the Stock Market? Well here are a few words for you… phenomenal… ridiculous… incredible… the dogs bollocks (sorry, I spent a lot of time in London - you might want to google that 1)… I guess the point I’m trying to get across is that it was a lovely little time… something my clients have exploited to it’s fullest, and I’m proud of every single 1 of them because I know the leap of faith they shown by choosing me to show them a path, which is a path built upon structure / consistency / strategy and a well executed game plan - there are no get rich quick schemes here!

As I embark upon my 3 month stint in the sunshine in Mexico (and I think Brazil also - although I’m deliberating that at moment), I find myself being more and more grateful for the life that discipline and structure to my Trading has afforded me, it’s amazing what happens.

When I observe the gambling out there, and the hope that many of you have with many of the positions taken in the market, i know full well it’s something that can be fixed, because if i can do it, anyone can do it.

So the question I’m asking today - Is the January Party Over?

So now we understand January was incredible, I feel I should share a couple of charts that i shared with my Client Group and also the Apprentice Group I have, these were shared 2 days ago (I’m no Monday Morning Quarter Back) and they served as a legitimate warning, and I think now is a time to get defensive, not aggressive.

Hopefully you were the smart money in January, and hopefully you won’t be the dumb money in February because there are VERY clear levels to now overcome in order for the stocks within the stock market to start another leg up, sure, there are stocks that have shown more strength than others, and some have held up very well, but these charts need to be considered, and I feel they need to be strongly considered.

Exhibit A - S&P 500 (SPY)

SPDR S&P 500 5th Feb 2019.png

As you can see, we’re pushing up against resistance, and I would make the argument now, that tightening up stops, and preserving profit might be something you want to consider, and to me it seems a logical approach, but obviously that’s a call that you can make on your own, I have an opinion that is simply 1 of many, but I like to think more logically and rationally than most.

I find a good place to start is to always ask yourself, what if I’m wrong? If you’re wrong about the market moving up, what do you have in place to limit the down side risk? And if you’re wrong about the Market moving down, what do you have in place to take advantage to the upside?

The 2nd chart we must consider -

Exhibit B - Tech - QQQ

Invesco QQQ 5th Feb 2019.png

As we can see, just like the S&P 500, we can see it’s also pushing up against resistance, and while it most definitely could be a minor pause in the recent rally before it blasts back toward All Time Highs, it could also be a reversal of the recent trend, so to go back to my question before… What if I’m wrong?

It’s a question you should always ask yourself.

In Summary

We’ve had a hell of a run, and it’s obviously been very welcome, and hopefully you’ve all crushed it and done exceedingly well, but on a personal level, I’m leaning toward the notion that all good runs come to an end sometime, and this MIGHT be the end of the current run, but like all good Trend Followers, I’m always open to changing my thesis in a heart beat, the second price tells me otherwise, and if we blast through all the key levels, you’ll see a very bullish Mr McCallum ready to take advantage once again.

I think I’ve done a pretty good job of helping you all navigate a ridiculously tough Market since September, and for those that have reached out to thank me for the insight, I do appreciate, because I also recognize that not everyone has the ability to put things out there and call things in advance in my field like I do.

So if you’re serious about learning, and want to align yourself with Honeystocks.com - it’s very simple.

There are no further intakes for February as I am currently Full, but if you’re interested in registering for March, it starts by clicking the link below.

Sam McCallumComment