The good thing about have a strong following, is it gives those that follow closely, and those that have an educated view of the Markets, to see what others are seeing, and for me, the positive thing is there’s a very clear audit trail of my thinking dating back to day dot, and although I definitely don’t consider myself the best Stock Market commentator in the world… if you were to put me on CNBC and Bloomberg, I suspect I’d get a lifetime ban for calling them all out for their nonsense and giving the common sense view.
Today’s nonsense - The Stock Market dropped on growth fears… cue… face palm.
Last week, I presented the thesis, that if the Russell 2000 drops, it MAY be the index to get the party started… another volatile week on Wall Street, and we’ve dropped just as expected, and things have taken another very clear sharp U-Turn Thursday / Friday, which essentially wiped out the gains of Mon/Tues/Wed.
Remember - the best Market rallies happen in bear markets… it doesn’t change what we’re being told by price, and for those that are hoping for / expecting it… unfortunately, RIGHT NOW, price is telling us there will be no Santa Rally’s this year.
We’re now inching closer to what I consider clear Market direction, and of course, the market could flip on its head next week and rampage to the up side, but in my view, it’s massively unlikely based on the weight of the evidence.
My clients who are choosing to trade just now, are profiting ridiculously well at the moment (I’m seeing numbers of +110%, +55%, +100%, +80% to name a few this week), and when you understand what you’re looking at, decision making becomes so much easier.
These are the key charts for me next week
Exhibit A - S&P500
As you can see, we’ve started on the next leg down - this is NOT good news for those currently caught in BUY / CALL positions… there’s a very real danger of having your face ripped off unfortunately… those taking the long term investing mindset… I wish you the best of luck, and if you’re in this mindset just now, and NOT receiving incredible Dividends on a monthly / quarterly basis (which is really the basis for Investing in my view) - there may be a few more Jack Bauer style tough questions being asked of you quite soon.
Exhibit B - Russell 2000
The Break Down from last week has held firm this week… again… this is NOT good news for the markets and given the S&P500 has followed the Russell this week in breaking down.. so perhaps we’re seeing the Crash party gather momentum.. what do you think?
Exhibit C - The Dow
The biggest chart of them all is now tantalizingly close, and although it hasn’t made that drop, we know that it’s a chart heavily correlated with the S&P500 (which has dropped)… it would now make sense to me, that unless there’s a market rally early next week (which is absolutely possible).. then the DOW would follow… this is NOT good news.
The overwhelming market sentiment is most definitely bearish, and although I’m not someone that relies on others to provide me with a thesis (I’m a completely Independent Thinker).. I would be far happier in a Market Crash scenario, because the market will drop MUCH quicker than it rises again thereby accumulating incredible profits, provided you know where to look.
Santa is obviously lovely when he shows up with his big white shiny beard… but this year, it looks like he’s been replaced with a Christmas Gremlin.
Those of you’re struggling out there… don’t sit and suffer…